The 2024 Olympic women’s soccer tournament will reach its climax in Paris on Saturday, as the United States takes on Brazil in the final. The USWNT, led by new coach Emma Hayes, has been dominant throughout the tournament, winning all of its matches. In contrast, Brazil had a shaky start in the group stage but rebounded strongly, defeating World Cup champions Spain and hosts France in the knockout rounds.
Will this revamped USWNT secure a fifth Olympic gold medal, their first since 2012? Or will Brazilian legend Marta finally claim an international title with her country? While the U.S. has had the upper hand against Brazil in recent encounters, anything can happen in tournament soccer.
Ahead of Saturday’s final, ESPN’s Sam Borden and Jeff Kassouf preview the matchup, address key questions, and share their predictions.
Why Could the USWNT Win?
The trio of Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson, and Sophia Smith—nicknamed “Triple Trouble”—has been the driving force behind the USWNT’s success in this tournament. They’ve accounted for nine of the team’s 11 goals in France, scoring in a variety of ways: long-range strikes, cutbacks, through balls, and scrambles.
While a total team effort will be necessary to overcome a strong Brazil side, any American success will likely involve a moment of brilliance from one of these attackers. Rodman shone in the quarterfinals, Smith in the semifinals—could it be Swanson’s turn in the final? —Borden
Why Could Brazil Win?
Brazil boasts an attacking lineup deep enough to bring 2023 NWSL MVP Kerolin—who made a miraculous recovery from an ACL tear last fall—off the bench in the semifinal, where she scored in stoppage time. They’ve also reached the final without Marta for the last 2½ games. Marta, who has shed many tears in her final years on the field, will return from suspension for her last Olympic game, creating an epic storyline. This team won’t overlook the chance to send the six-time world player of the year off with a major title after so many near misses, including losses to the USWNT in the 2004 and 2008 gold medal matches. —Kassouf
Which Matchup Will Be Decisive in the Final?
While the USWNT’s front three will draw plenty of attention, I believe the midfield will be the deciding factor in this game. Brazil is likely to overload central areas with a rotating cast, similar to what Germany did in the semifinal against the U.S. The American midfield trio of Sam Coffey, Lindsey Horan, and Rose Lavelle must find ways to control the ball and distribute it precisely. Marta, despite her age, has had a stellar year and will be determined to leave her mark on one last major game against a familiar foe from 20 years ago. —Kassouf
I agree with you, Jeff. The U.S. has struggled with consistency in the midfield, especially with Horan and Lavelle. However, I’m focusing further back—Naomi Girma has been outstanding throughout the tournament and will need to lead another strong defensive effort. Brazil has serious attacking threats, including off the bench, and their coach, Arthur Elias, encourages a high press. The U.S. will need to handle that pressure better than Spain did to win. —Borden
USWNT Player to Watch
Trinity Rodman. While Naomi Girma deserves recognition for her case as the world’s best center-back, Rodman is the player likely to capture the audience’s attention. Choosing one player from the front three of Rodman, Smith, and Swanson is tough, but Rodman brings a unique energy. She has shown she’s fitter than nearly anyone on the field, constantly driving USWNT attacks. While it’s been a collective effort to reach the final, Rodman is in form to take over this game. —Kassouf
Brazil Player to Watch
Marta. How can you pick anyone but Marta? Even the most die-hard USWNT fan who truly loves women’s soccer will have a small part of them rooting for Marta to finally have her moment. The Queen of Football, with her unmatched résumé, is playing in her sixth Olympics at 38, but has never won a World Cup or Olympic title. While Brazil no longer plays through Marta as much as it once did, her return from suspension for one last can’t-miss game is a fitting final act. —Borden
Score Prediction
United States 2-1 Brazil. Neither team was widely expected to reach this stage, and either outcome would make for a compelling narrative. For the U.S., it’s a chance for redemption after last year’s World Cup failure; for Brazil, a poetic sendoff for one of the sport’s all-time greats. Tired legs could lead to mistakes, and I think the U.S. front three is better positioned to capitalize on those opportunities. —Kassouf
United States 3-2 Brazil. I agree with you on the storylines, Jeff—either an incredible end for Marta or a remarkable beginning for Hayes. I may be overly optimistic, but I believe we could see more goals in this final. I’ve said before that I think Hayes has something special with this team, so I’m sticking with that: the USWNT will win in a thriller. —Borden
